Senate Update

My what a difference two days makes. The big news should be Ohio. Brown's lead has eroded from 12.2% to 7.7% over the weekend. The only Democrat gaining ground in the battleground states is Stabenow. That's a Democrat lock. The other Democrats are either moving horizontally or are dropping in the polls. Almost everywhere you look, Republicans are gaining.

Again, I took the RCP Averages and then shifted them 5% towards the Republicans. Although no seats have changed hands since Friday, NJ is close.

RCP Average    Friday      Sunday

MO: McCaskill (D)    1.4%        2.0%  
MT: Tester (D)       3.4%        3.0%
VA: TIE              0.5%        0.0%
MD: Cardin (D)       4.0%        3.5%   
NJ: Menendez (D)     7.2%        6.1%
OH: Brown (D)       12.2%        7.7%
RI: Whitehouse (D)   9.2%        5.4%
AZ: Kyl (R)          8.0%        8.6%
TN: Corker (R)       6.5%        7.4%
MN: Klobuchar (D)   17.6%       15.3%
MI: Stabenow (D)    11.7%       14.5%
PA: Casey (D)       11.2%       11.5%
WA: Cantwell (D)    13.5%       13.3%
CT: Lieberman (I)   11.0%       11.0%


Adjusted

MO: Talent (R)       3.6%        3.0%
MT: Burns (R)        1.6%        2.0%
VA: Allen (R)        4.5%        5.0%
MD: Steele (R)       1.0%        1.5%   
NJ: Menendez (D)     2.2%        1.1%
OH: Brown (D)        7.2%        2.7%
RI: Whitehouse (D)   4.2%        0.4%
AZ: Kyl (R)          13.0%      13.6%
TN: Corker (R)       11.5%      12.4% 
MN: Klobuchar (D)    12.6%      10.3%
MI: Stabenow (D)      6.7%       9.5%
PA: Casey (D)         6.2%       6.5%
WA: Cantwell (D)      8.5%       8.3%
CT: Lieberman (I)    11.0%      11.0%

UPDATE 11:45: Updated with latest data from RCP.

Analysis: The races are definitely shifting towards the Republicans. These numbers show the Democrats stealing Pennsylvania and Ohio from the Republicans and the Republicans stealing Maryland from the Democrats. That's +1 for the Democrats far short of the 6 they need to take the Senate. But look at how close these races are. I don't think anybody can predict what is going to happen on Tuesday.