Election Prediction
Theory: Its obvious that the press has worked hard to demoralize the Republican
base. They pissed off conservative Christians with Foley-gate. They pissed off fiscal conservatives by pointing out out-of-control the spending in congress. They pissed off the rest by playing up border security. It has worked. Some Republicans have decided to sit out this election and allow the Democrats to win. But I think this media strategy has had an unintended effect.
Think about this: if you were a hardcore Christian conservative, would you participate in a poll the day after Foley resigned? No, you wouldn't. You'd tell the pollster to fuck off and hang up the phone. All of the polls are reporting an increase in the number of Democrats responding. I could believe these "scandals" might cause some people not to vote but does anybody believe people are switching parties because of some gay guy in Florida?
Also, if you've watched Fox News anytime in the past week, you know that Republicans are depending on their superior get-out-the-vote machine.
I believe the polls are skewed towards the Democrats so I went race by race through Real Clear Politics to see what a 5% swing towards Republicans would look like.
Senate
The current United States Senate is comprised of 44 Democrats, 1 Asshole Independent, and 55 Republicans.
RCP has the Democrats picking up 6 seats, exactly what they would need to take over the Senate and impose communist rule on the country. The new Senate would be made up of 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans.
Look at how close some of the races are and what happens shift them 5% towards Republicans.
The Democrats would pick up 2 seats. The Senate would remain in Republican control with 53
Republicans and 47 Democrats. Harry Reid would put a shotgun in his mouth.
House
The current United States House of Representatives consists of 232 Republicans and 202 Democrats. Most of the battleground seats are Republican-held. The Democrats need 15 seats to take control. Target has already stated that they cannot return their new drapes.
If you analyze the election district by district, the Democrats are projected to pick up 34 seats. The new House would be comprised of 236 Democrats and 198 Republicans. Nancy Pelosi would impeach Bush, establish tree worship as the official state religion, and ban all commerce.
Again, I went race by race and adjusted the numbers. I made judgements based on the closeness of the race, momentum, and other factors. For instance, I give TX-22 to the Republicans because a recent poll shows Gibbs close to winning even though she's a write-in candidate. But in each case, I only gave it to Republicans if they had a good chance to win.
The result is a list showing the Republicans losing only 8 seats. These election results would produce a congress of 226 Republicans and 210 Democrats. Average the two and the Democrats would gain 21 seats and the new congress would be 223 Democrats and 211 Republicans. The latter is more likely so I'm going to go with it.
My official prediction: Republicans retain control of the United States Senate with a 6 seat majority. The Democrats take control of the House with a 12 seat majority.
UPDATE:
Dean Barnett at Townhall.com thinks like I do. And explains it a hell of a lot better than I can.
It is about time the press stops reporting polls as news. I hope this election demonstrates how wrong the pollsters can be.
base. They pissed off conservative Christians with Foley-gate. They pissed off fiscal conservatives by pointing out out-of-control the spending in congress. They pissed off the rest by playing up border security. It has worked. Some Republicans have decided to sit out this election and allow the Democrats to win. But I think this media strategy has had an unintended effect.
Think about this: if you were a hardcore Christian conservative, would you participate in a poll the day after Foley resigned? No, you wouldn't. You'd tell the pollster to fuck off and hang up the phone. All of the polls are reporting an increase in the number of Democrats responding. I could believe these "scandals" might cause some people not to vote but does anybody believe people are switching parties because of some gay guy in Florida?
Also, if you've watched Fox News anytime in the past week, you know that Republicans are depending on their superior get-out-the-vote machine.
I believe the polls are skewed towards the Democrats so I went race by race through Real Clear Politics to see what a 5% swing towards Republicans would look like.
Senate
The current United States Senate is comprised of 44 Democrats, 1 Asshole Independent, and 55 Republicans.
RCP has the Democrats picking up 6 seats, exactly what they would need to take over the Senate and impose communist rule on the country. The new Senate would be made up of 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans.
RCP Average
Kyl (R) +8%
Lieberman (I) +11%
Cardin (D) +4%
Stabenow (D) +11.7%
Kloubuchar (D) +17.6%
McCaskill (D) +1.4%
Tester (D) +3.4%
Menendez (D) +7.2%
Brown (D) +12.2%
Casey (D) +11.2%
Whitehouse(D) +9.2%
Corker (R) +6.5%
Webb (D) +0.5%
Cantwell (D) +13.5%
Look at how close some of the races are and what happens shift them 5% towards Republicans.
Adjusted
Kyl (R) +13%
Lieberman (I) +11%
Steele (R) +1%
Stabenow (D) +6.7%
Kloubuchar (D) +12.6%
Talent (R) +3.6%
Burns (R) +1.6%
Menendez (D) +2.2%
Brown (D) +7.2%
Casey (D) +6.2%
Whitehouse (D) +4.2%
Corker (R) +11.5%
Allen (R) +4.5%
Cantwell (D) +8.5%
The Democrats would pick up 2 seats. The Senate would remain in Republican control with 53
Republicans and 47 Democrats. Harry Reid would put a shotgun in his mouth.
House
The current United States House of Representatives consists of 232 Republicans and 202 Democrats. Most of the battleground seats are Republican-held. The Democrats need 15 seats to take control. Target has already stated that they cannot return their new drapes.
District: Incumbent RCP Me
Republican
TX-22: Open (Delay) D R
IN-2: Chocola D R
VA-2: Drake R R
AZ-8: Open (Kolbe) D D
OH-15: Pryce D D
FL-22: Shaw D R
FL-16: Open (Foley) D R
PA-6: Gerlach D R
KY-3: Northup D D
IN-8: Hostettler D D
NY-26: Reynolds R R
CO-4: Musgrave R R
PA-10: Sherwood D D
IN-9: Sodrel R R
KY-4: Davis D R
CO-7: Open (Beauprez) D D
FL-13: Open (Harris) D R
PA-4: Hart R R
OH-18: Open (Ney) D D
CT-4: Shays D R
NV-2: Open (Gibbons) R R
PA-7: Weldon D D
CT-5: Johnson D R
NY-25: Walsh R R
NY-24: Open (Boehlert) D D
IL-6: Open (Hyde) D R
AZ-1: Renzi R R
IA-1: Open (Nussle) D D
MN-6: Open (Kennedy) R R
CA-11: Pombo D R
NC-11: Taylor D R
CT-2: Simmons D R
NY-29: Kuhl D D
NM-1: Wilson D R
WA-8: Reichert R R
NY-19: Kelly D R
NH-2: Bass D R
PA-8: Fitzpatrick D R
WI-8: Open (Green) D R
CA-4: Doolittle R R
OH-2: Schmidt D R
NV-3: Porter R R
AZ-5: Hayworth D R
ID-1: Sali D R
NY-20: Sweeney D R
MN-1: Gutknecht R R
OH-1: Chabot D R
NJ-7: Ferguson R R
Democrat Seats
GA-12: Barrow D R
IL-8: Bean D R
GA-8: Marshall D D
VT-AL: Open (Sanders) D D
IA-3: Boswell D D
IN-7: Carson D R
+34 +8 34+8/2= 21
If you analyze the election district by district, the Democrats are projected to pick up 34 seats. The new House would be comprised of 236 Democrats and 198 Republicans. Nancy Pelosi would impeach Bush, establish tree worship as the official state religion, and ban all commerce.
Again, I went race by race and adjusted the numbers. I made judgements based on the closeness of the race, momentum, and other factors. For instance, I give TX-22 to the Republicans because a recent poll shows Gibbs close to winning even though she's a write-in candidate. But in each case, I only gave it to Republicans if they had a good chance to win.
The result is a list showing the Republicans losing only 8 seats. These election results would produce a congress of 226 Republicans and 210 Democrats. Average the two and the Democrats would gain 21 seats and the new congress would be 223 Democrats and 211 Republicans. The latter is more likely so I'm going to go with it.
My official prediction: Republicans retain control of the United States Senate with a 6 seat majority. The Democrats take control of the House with a 12 seat majority.
UPDATE:
Dean Barnett at Townhall.com thinks like I do. And explains it a hell of a lot better than I can.
It is about time the press stops reporting polls as news. I hope this election demonstrates how wrong the pollsters can be.
posted by FrakYou at 00:48
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